Much ado about Iran

Iran has not been known as a country that has been satisfied with the status quo in the 20th and 21st centuries. In the last 100 year period, the country has going through phases where it has overthrown its shah, established a radical Islamic republic, and taken on one of the world’s superpowers in a hostage crisis. In this century, Iran began to exploit its oil wealth, despite an embargo by the United States and others, and started a nuclear program. It has uranium enrichment facilities, and despite a report by the CIA that indicates the Iranians stopped trying to produce nuclear weapons in 2003 released earlier this year, the prospect for future developments in the nuclear department are enough to send oil prices soaring and regional tensions flaring. Iran’s recent test firings of 9 missiles in response to Israeli and American war games shows that the Iranians aren’t yet ready to settle into a peaceful state.

The goals of both sides are obvious and similar: intimidation. Israel hopes to make it clear that it could strike at an Iranian nuclear reactor with ease. America seeks to demonstrate that no country can cut off its oil supply. Iran wants to show that neither Israel nor America will be able to do what it wants in the region without a fight. This obviously raises the potential for war, but not seriously.

Yes, it seems like war is possible now, but there are several limiting factors. America is unlikely to engage in any more full scale wars for a long while after the Iraqi one ends. Israel’s military is not designed to be able to take on long term operations. Iran, meanwhile, is not strong enough to take on either of two of the world’s most advanced militaries. All sides realize that they are incapable of serious sustained military action.

So the most likely result of these shows of strength would be a setback in negotiations. Diplomacy might be sidetracked a bit, and oil prices might rise, but otherwise no serious long term harm is likely to result from this episode. It is, after all, one that has been repeated many times over.