More of that Republican magic

It is now the middle of September. John McCain’s candidacy, which up until this summer seemed doomed to certain failure, is now likely to lead to the next President of the United States. Barack Obama, for whom the office of the Presidency had been his to lose, is losing it. In all of the most recent polls, what was once a relatively comfortable lead for the Demcratic nominee is now either a dead heat or a prediction of victory for the Republicans. If the election were to happen this very moment, the most likely outcome would be a Senate and House controlled by the Democratic party while the White House belongs to a Republican. Those with a sense of humor might note that we, as citizens, will be receiving the worst of both ends.

How is this even possible? Why do Republicans have such an advantage when it comes to running campaigns? The most likely reason is twofold: first, Republicans were ahead of the curve when mass media came out in terms of utilizing new technologies and have held that advantage up until now. Secondly, Republicans tend to treat elections more like games in which the only thing that matters is more votes.

The tactics they utilize, from smear campaigns to outright lying, are usually good enough to succeed. However, such tactics ultimately fail when an overriding issue, namely the economy, comes into play. There is nothing to be done when the economy becomes the central issue, because that inherently gives a huge advantage to the Democrats. As such, it seems likely that for once, despite Republican tactics, a Democrat will ultimately prevail in the White House.

Sarah Palin Fails ABC Interview

Sarah Palin's interview does not go quite as well as expected.

While she did present some positions consistent with Republican ideology, she lacked the general understanding of some other key points. Specifically, she had no understanding of what the "Bush Doctrine" in foreign policy, instead refusing to answer the question twice before going to a stock response. Additionally, Palin linked September 11th to Iraq instead of Al-Qaeda, a position that has thus far not been validated through facts or even accepted by the current Administration. She also purposefully skirted a question about whether she believed that the Iraq War was a "mission from God", turning to an Abraham Lincoln quote to deflect away from her own comments.

It is clear from this interview that Palin is not yet ready to be Vice President. While she herself might be proud of being a Washington outsider, her lack of experience or even knowledge of national politics and issues makes it impossible to say that she is ready to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. Ultimately she showed that she was more like Dan Quayle as a VP nominee, and the fact that she accepted the nomination unquestioningly shows either hubris or a lack of ability to clearly evaluate herself.

A fair view on the invasion of Taiwan

When it comes to the invasion of Taiwan, one must actually go to the island and see rather than speculate. Similar to how the Persians lost to the Greeks, the Chinese will be unable to hold Taiwan as an islands, if Taiwan runs an insurgency. This is due to several reasons. First, is that the Taiwan military is better equipped than the Chinese military. The new Taiwanese rifle is reputed to have the accuracy of the M-16 with the reliability of the AK-47. I believe China still operates with the AK-47. The Taiwan Military also has M-1 Abrams in order. Retired tank from the Canadian arsenal are being shipped to Taiwan. Other than the random talk about the Equipment, there are more pressing matters that state why Taiwan cannot be held by China.

Second, is the fact that Taiwan specializes in Urban combat. Due to the fact that Taiwan is concentrated mainly in cities and not suburbs, the Chinese military will have to go through cities to hold Taiwan. There are several problems with this. First, is that everyone can shoot a weapon. Due to the fact that every male in Taiwan must serve in the military for at least 2 years, everyone in Taiwan needs to shoot. As demonstrated by the Iraqi war, a full blown insurgency inside of a city is incredibly hard to occupy no matter who you are (U.S. Marines). To make this matter worse, is the fact that every building in Taiwan is built to earthquake standards. Hence, Taiwan is fairly resistant to artillery. Furthermore, Taiwan is built with many sketchy alleys. Since these are only wide enough for say, 2 people and both sides with concrete, it wouldn't be difficult to establish a kill zone.

Third, is that Taiwan has more mobility than probably any other place. Since the island is populated with an incredible amount of scooters, moving small arms and people effectively through tight corridors will not be a problem. Hence, any insurgency will always be supplied. On the same note, since Taiwan is a tropical islands, food is outside. Yet again, Taiwan will be well supplied.

Hence, to hold Taiwan, merely requires an excess of small arms.

Unfortunately, I am unsure of the resolution of Taiwan to hold and fight against China. True, that China will be unable to hold Taiwan, but Taiwan has much more to lose than China. At the moment, Taiwan is on the cutting edge of technology. If there is anything that Taiwan has to brag about, is high end infrastructure. Unfortunately, these would be lost in an air strike. Hence, I am unsure of the people are willing to rebuild everything in the name of independence.

To further support this view, is the take over by the KMT party. The KMT party has always tried to press closer relations with China as well as the eventual reunification of China. This shift on politics shows that the Taiwanese people are less concerned about their nationhood, and more concerned about their economical success. In other words, Taiwan has very little Nationalism.

Despite the fact that Taiwan is probably the most defensible islands in the world, the lack of Nationalism makes me believe that Taiwan will not fight tooth and nail against a Chinese occupation. Rather than supporting their independence, Taiwan believes in their own economic prosperity.

It's a choice, and you can rarely have both. Economic growth, or nationhood. And at the moment, Taiwan has picked economic growth. In the event that China does start firing missiles, Taiwan will have two choices. To make themselves a nation, or to mitigate any further damage to their infrastructure.