A fair view on the invasion of Taiwan

When it comes to the invasion of Taiwan, one must actually go to the island and see rather than speculate. Similar to how the Persians lost to the Greeks, the Chinese will be unable to hold Taiwan as an islands, if Taiwan runs an insurgency. This is due to several reasons. First, is that the Taiwan military is better equipped than the Chinese military. The new Taiwanese rifle is reputed to have the accuracy of the M-16 with the reliability of the AK-47. I believe China still operates with the AK-47. The Taiwan Military also has M-1 Abrams in order. Retired tank from the Canadian arsenal are being shipped to Taiwan. Other than the random talk about the Equipment, there are more pressing matters that state why Taiwan cannot be held by China.

Second, is the fact that Taiwan specializes in Urban combat. Due to the fact that Taiwan is concentrated mainly in cities and not suburbs, the Chinese military will have to go through cities to hold Taiwan. There are several problems with this. First, is that everyone can shoot a weapon. Due to the fact that every male in Taiwan must serve in the military for at least 2 years, everyone in Taiwan needs to shoot. As demonstrated by the Iraqi war, a full blown insurgency inside of a city is incredibly hard to occupy no matter who you are (U.S. Marines). To make this matter worse, is the fact that every building in Taiwan is built to earthquake standards. Hence, Taiwan is fairly resistant to artillery. Furthermore, Taiwan is built with many sketchy alleys. Since these are only wide enough for say, 2 people and both sides with concrete, it wouldn't be difficult to establish a kill zone.

Third, is that Taiwan has more mobility than probably any other place. Since the island is populated with an incredible amount of scooters, moving small arms and people effectively through tight corridors will not be a problem. Hence, any insurgency will always be supplied. On the same note, since Taiwan is a tropical islands, food is outside. Yet again, Taiwan will be well supplied.

Hence, to hold Taiwan, merely requires an excess of small arms.

Unfortunately, I am unsure of the resolution of Taiwan to hold and fight against China. True, that China will be unable to hold Taiwan, but Taiwan has much more to lose than China. At the moment, Taiwan is on the cutting edge of technology. If there is anything that Taiwan has to brag about, is high end infrastructure. Unfortunately, these would be lost in an air strike. Hence, I am unsure of the people are willing to rebuild everything in the name of independence.

To further support this view, is the take over by the KMT party. The KMT party has always tried to press closer relations with China as well as the eventual reunification of China. This shift on politics shows that the Taiwanese people are less concerned about their nationhood, and more concerned about their economical success. In other words, Taiwan has very little Nationalism.

Despite the fact that Taiwan is probably the most defensible islands in the world, the lack of Nationalism makes me believe that Taiwan will not fight tooth and nail against a Chinese occupation. Rather than supporting their independence, Taiwan believes in their own economic prosperity.

It's a choice, and you can rarely have both. Economic growth, or nationhood. And at the moment, Taiwan has picked economic growth. In the event that China does start firing missiles, Taiwan will have two choices. To make themselves a nation, or to mitigate any further damage to their infrastructure.